1
Merger
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 38% | -0.51 |
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 13/05/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |