3
Run Red Run
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 73
Thistledown · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 09/04/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 40% | -0.52 |
| 10/06/2025 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |