4
Calling Tillie
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 52
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength70%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-09-18 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 17% | -0.75 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |