1
Tier Ones Legacy
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 48
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength74%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2026-03-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 17/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 29/04/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |