Trustthefact
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 31
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 26/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 15/09/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |