Aye Aye Sir
9yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 03/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |