3
Big Bucksalot
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 19/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |