6
Classic Richie
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 89
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |