Little Vaquero
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -15.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 21/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |