IvyArcIvyArc
5

Gaga's Girl

3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 74

Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 14/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f110y 11914/07C6C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 77 · 6f 119 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 77 par15/04C6OR 77C6 @ Churchill Downs 07/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 78 · 6f Fas 118 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 78 par7/05C6OR 78C6 @ Thistledown 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 75 · 6f 119 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 75 par26/05C6OR 75C6 @ Thistledown 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 1m Fas 119 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 72 par17/08C6OR 72projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Thistledown?1st2nd−1
2026-05-26Thistledown?3rd4th−1
2026-05-07Churchill Downs?7th8th−1
2026-04-15Tampa Bay Downs?3rd4th−1
2025-07-14Ellis Park?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0715/047/0526/0517/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength79%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/07/20256th20/10%17%+0.17
15/04/20263rd5/174%78%+0.04
07/05/20267th33/10%40%+0.40
26/05/20263rd9/488%60%-0.28
17/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11