3
Nava's Gold
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 81
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
84%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength88%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |