Perfect Date
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-04 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 09/03/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 04/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |