4
Striking Lady
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 02/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |