IvyArcIvyArc
6

Little Value Added

3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 66

Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

55%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark28/10/2025 · OR 61 par28/10C9OR 61C9 @ Churchill Downs 28/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 41 · 6f 119 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 41 parC9 @ Turfway Park 28/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 55 · 6f110y 119 · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 55 par28/12C9OR 55C6 @ Charles Town 13/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 65 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 65 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 06/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 74 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 74 par6/03C5OR 74C5 @ Mahoning Valley 26/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Thistledown 20/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 72 · 5f110y 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 72 par20/04C5OR 72C8 @ Mountaineer 09/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 61 · 5f Gd 120 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 61 parC8 @ Thistledown 26/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 67 · 5f110y Fas 115 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 67 par26/08C8OR 67projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Thistledown?7th7th0
2026-08-09Mountaineer?6th6th0
2026-04-20Thistledown?1st-2th+3
2026-03-26Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3
2026-03-06Mahoning Valley?2nd-1th+3
2026-02-13Charles Town?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1013/0220/0426/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%

Delivery trend -9.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/10/20255th10/147%50%+0.03
28/11/20253rd16/116%71%+0.56
28/12/20252nd4/179%91%+0.12
13/02/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
06/03/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
26/03/20264th2/189%50%-0.39
20/04/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
09/08/20266th8/158%17%-0.41
26/08/20267th5/287%14%-0.73