4
Neblina
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 01/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |