2
Sparkly
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Lone Star | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 13/02/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 36% | -0.24 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |