State Charmer

3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 73

Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

6/5

Win Prob

45%

Place Prob

46%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength47%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-13	Thistledown	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-06-23	Thistledown	?	1st	-2th	+3	5.0
2026-05-31	Churchill Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-04-26	Churchill Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-04-11	Tampa Bay Downs	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-03-07	Tampa Bay Downs	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick

Trend▬

Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/02/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	83%	+0.10
07/03/2026	5th	16/1	16%	50%	+0.34
11/04/2026	5th	10/1	47%	33%	-0.14
26/04/2026	1st	5/2	87%	100%	+0.13
31/05/2026	7th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
23/06/2026	1st	4/1	79%	100%	+0.21
13/07/2026	5th	16/1	16%	43%	+0.27