1
Sthenic
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 68
Thistledown · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Lone Star | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 28/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 28/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |