3
Angel I'm Not
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 61
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 05/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |