2
Brief Encounter
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
54%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 40% | -0.56 |
| 10/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 14% | -0.70 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |