6
Drill Blitz
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 27/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |