5
Mandolin Breeze
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 61
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 08/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 27/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 12/05/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |