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3

Counting On Clyde

3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 72

Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

15%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 26/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 56 par26/02C6OR 56C9 @ Mahoning Valley 17/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 62 · 6f Gd 118 · beat its mark17/03/2026 · OR 62 parC8 @ Mahoning Valley 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 66 · 6f 118 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 66 par10/04C8OR 66C8 @ Thistledown 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 67 · 5f110y 119 · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 67 parC8 @ Thistledown 26/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 69 · 5f110y 117 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 69 par26/05C8OR 69C5 @ Thistledown 17/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 69 · 6f 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Thistledown 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 69 · 5f110y 115 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 69 par8/07C8OR 69C8 @ Thistledown 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 68 · 5f110y 117 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 68 parC8 @ Thistledown 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 72 · 5f110y Fas 117 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 72 par15/09C8OR 72projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-08-11Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-07-08Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-06-17Thistledown?4th1st+3
2026-05-26Thistledown?5th5th0
2026-05-05Thistledown?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/025/058/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/02/20266th14/126%38%+0.11
17/03/20261st2/598%100%+0.02
10/04/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
05/05/20264th9/276%25%-0.51
26/05/20265th6/168%0%-0.68
17/06/20264th16/116%40%+0.24
08/07/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
11/08/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
15/09/20263rd9/153%67%+0.14