5
Gone Wild
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 67
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength80%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-26 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-05-29 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 10/10/2024 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 12/11/2024 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 12/05/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 29/05/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |