4
My Valentino
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 59
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 6/5 | 94% | 38% | -0.56 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 03/03/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |