Spirit Of Akron

5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 74

Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-22	Thistledown	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-09-02	Thistledown	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-05-28	Thistledown	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-06	Thistledown	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-04-10	Mahoning Valley	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-03-23	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength65%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/12/2025	2nd	7/2	82%	75%	-0.07
15/01/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	88%	+0.02
09/03/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	75%	+0.01
23/03/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	71%	+0.11
10/04/2026	5th	11/4	86%	20%	-0.66
06/05/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
28/05/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
02/09/2026	4th	15/2	61%	40%	-0.21
22/09/2026	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14