Unbridled O'brien
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 02/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 11/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |