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5

Misses Lily

3yo Filly · 9-2

Toulouse · Prix Sharaaf Handicap · 7f 209y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength2%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Pau 06/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 7f209y Std 1236/02C5C5 @ La Teste De Buch 21/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 12821/03C5C0 @ La Teste De Buch 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 11715/05C?C0 @ ParisLongchamp 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 1m208y GS 12815/06C?C0 @ Chantilly 19/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 12819/07C?C0 @ Tarbes 29/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f96y GS 12229/08C?C0 @ Le Mans 11/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f152y Sft 12811/09C?projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Le Mans?9th9th0
2026-08-29Tarbes?4th4th0
2026-07-19Chantilly?11th11th0
2026-06-15ParisLongchamp?3rd3rd0
2026-05-15La Teste De Buch?4th4th0
2026-03-21La Teste De Buch?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0215/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20268th8/158%30%-0.28
21/03/20268th33/10%46%+0.46
15/05/20264th20/10%73%+0.73
15/06/20263rd7/282%86%+0.04
19/07/202611th9/276%23%-0.53
29/08/20264th10/147%57%+0.10
11/09/20269th12/137%27%-0.10