Hong Kong Star
9yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 58
Toulouse · Prix Albert Laborde Claiming Stakes · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Tarbes | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-07-29 | Mont De Marsan | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Dax | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 85% | +0.08 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 23/03/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 29/06/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 29/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |