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5

Albaydaa

3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 89

Ascot · BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Continued her progress when landing the odds in handicap at Carlisle (7f) in May and, after a couple of respectable efforts (listed race on first occasion), got back on the up when second to a thriving rival at Salisbury (6f) last month. Will need to find more again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Yarmouth 17/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f3y Sft 12817/0944 @ Kempton 10/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f Sta 1285 @ Wolverhampton 04/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 7f36y Std 1284/1152 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 83 · 6f Gd 118 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 83 par2 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 122 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 83 par8/052OR 833 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 84 · 6f195y Goo 126 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 84 par1 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 86 · 6f195y GF 128 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 86 par24/061OR 862 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 89 · 7f GS 122 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 89 par2 @ Salisbury 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 88 · 6f Goo 132 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 88 par3/092OR 88projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Salisbury22nd3rd−1
2026-08-20York28th9th−1
2026-06-24Carlisle15th5th0
2026-05-30Carlisle31st4th−2
2026-05-08Ascot22nd3rd−1
2026-04-16Newmarket23rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0916/0424/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength51%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20253rd5/696%60%-0.36
10/10/20252nd7/282%88%+0.06
04/11/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
16/04/20263rd17/255%83%+0.28
08/05/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
30/05/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
24/06/20265th2/189%56%-0.34
20/08/20268th7/163%61%-0.02
03/09/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11