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15:45 · Ascot

Melbourne Cup Carnival Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 7f 209yGoing TBCClass 33YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 88
5/4
Cranachan silks

Mr Des Anderson

Cranachan

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Cracksman - Bizzarria (Lemon Drop Kid)

Rossa Ryan70%0/1R M Beckett70%
621421
7.0Going 9.0
Blinkers

Relished the step up in trip when winning 9-runner handicap at Chester (2m, good, 9/2) 41 days ago. 9 lb higher now but further improvement may be forthcoming.

Class Advantage

3/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a3/122/03 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a22/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below20/06 · mark par17/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par22/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength7%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 209y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 29%3/12Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 100%22/04Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 25%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 67%17/07Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%22/08
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -10.6%Ahead 2/4
1
2
OR 92
8/1
Hot Fuss silks

Keith, David & Stephen Trowbridge

Hot Fuss

5yo Gelding · 10-4

Calyx - Natural Bloom (Galileo)

Pierre-Louis Jamin60%1/10Tom Dascombe60%
233100
6.0Class ↓3
Visor

Performed well over hurdles last winter, including when runner-up in Martin Pipe at Cheltenham in March. Disappointed on last Flat start in November, however, and has questions to answer on first outing for 6 months. Visor back on.

Class Advantage

29/11 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/11 · mark par29/1120/12 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/12 · mark par3/01 · C3 · finish vs mark below3/01 · mark par16/01 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/01 · mark par13/03 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below13/03 · mark par10/04 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/04 · mark par10/04projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength72%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 209y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 29%29/11Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 92%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 4 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 57%3/01Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 96%13/03Pos 14 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 14 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 38%10/04
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +28.6%Ahead 2/4
5
4
OR 75
6/1
Shipshape silks

B J Llewellyn & Partner

Shipshape

4yo Gelding · 9-1

New Bay - Pilates (Shamardal)

Isobelle Chalmers0/1−7lbB J Llewellyn60%
211253
6.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Three-time winner this year, latest at Chester in June. Back to form when good third of 10 in handicap at same course (2m, good to soft, 18/1) 20 days ago and can't be discounted here.

Class Advantage

2/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par2/0527/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/05 · mark par13/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par27/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par11/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par12/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 209y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 2 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 75%2/05Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%13/06Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 2 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 83%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 20%11/08Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 78%12/09
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength67%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.6%Ahead 2/4
6
3
OR 73
15/2
Vaguely Royal silks

Eventmasters Racing

Vaguely Royal

6yo Gelding · 8-13

Galileo - Danilovna (Dansili)

W Buick70%1/1Ian Williams60%
336116
5.0Going 8.0
Visor

Rejuvenated by switch to visor when capitalising on a career-low mark at Chester in July and improved on that when following up at York (2m, good, 10/3) later that month. Undone by slow start at Musselburgh since and looks a likely player here.

Class Advantage

17/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par17/0522/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par1/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/06 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par25/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above25/08 · mark par25/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 209y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 60%17/05Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 29%1/06Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%24/07Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 38%25/08
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.7%Ahead 2/4
3
6
OR 77
8/1
Must Believe silks

Mr Benji Arter

Must Believe

4yo Gelding · 9-3

Make Believe - Dalhousie (Golden Horn)

Jack Dace70%1/2−5lbGeorge Baker
451832
5.0

Back to winning ways at Kempton in May and performed well in defeat more recently, latest when creditable second of 8 in handicap at same course (2m, 7/2) 28 days ago. Possibilities.

Class Advantage

15/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/01 · mark par15/014/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/02 · mark par4/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par5/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below5/06 · mark par12/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above12/08 · mark par4/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 209y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%15/01Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%4/05Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 8 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 82%12/08Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 86%4/09
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +22.6%Ahead 3/4
4
5
OR 72
4/1
Just An Hour silks

Mr Eric Gadsden

Just An Hour

6yo Gelding · 9-3

Justify - Hourglass (Galileo)

George Wood60%1/5B R Millman
343341
6.0Class ↓2

Gained reward for consistency when returning to winning ways in 9-runner handicap at Ffos Las (1¾m, soft) 11 days ago. 5-lb penalty to carry now but must be respected.

Class Advantage

14/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/06 · mark par14/0611/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par23/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par10/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par24/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par21/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength27%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 7f 209y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 60%14/06Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 57%Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 71%23/07Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 60%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 50%24/08Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%21/09
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -14.0%Ahead 1/4