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14:45 · Fontwell

Colin Johnson's 70th Birthday Celebrations Handicap Chase

2m 3f 104yGoing TBCClass 44YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
2
OR 106
2/1
Midnight Jewel silks

Ms G E Morgan

Midnight Jewel

10yo Gelding · 11-5

Midnight Legend - Follow The Dream (Double Trigger)

James Bowen60%1/1C E Longsdon70%
1PP551
7.0
Cheek pieces

With 2 runs over hurdles behind him, took advantage of his reduced mark when landing the odds in 3-runner contest here (2¾m) last month, though one of his rivals failed to give their running. Now a 5-time course winner but faces a tougher ask in this contest.

Class Advantage

31/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par31/087/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below7/09 · mark par22/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/09 · mark par22/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/07 · mark par19/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below19/08 · mark par6/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f 104y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 45%31/08Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%22/09Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%19/08Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 100%6/09
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength86%
ExpectedActualTrend
100%1-552/100
1
Market Fav3
OR 117
11/8
Move With The Beat silks

Mr James Drummond

Move With The Beat

7yo Gelding · 12-2

Doyen - Roxy Beat (Beat All)

Isabelle Ryder60%4/5−5lbJamie Snowden60%
F14111
9.0
Tongue strap

Slow start to his chasing career but has left that behind with 4 wins from his last 5 outings, the latest when scoring in straightforward fashion at Newton Abbot (21f) in May. Major player after a break.

Class Advantage

17/11 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/11 · mark par17/1115/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/01 · mark par26/02 · C4 · finish vs mark below26/02 · mark par1/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/04 · mark par23/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/04 · mark par13/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/05 · mark par13/05projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength9%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f 104y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 56%17/11Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 50%26/02Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%23/04Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%13/05
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
80%1-374/100
5
Top Pick1
OR 105
10/1
A Little Something silks

Mrs Zara Tindall

A Little Something

7yo Mare · 11-4

Dartmouth - Somethinaboutmolly (Choisir)

C J ToddMiss E C Lavelle60%
211UFP
9.0Going 10.0

Successful in handicaps at Stratford and over this C&D in May/June and probably would have won next 2 starts but for departing. Pulled up here on latest outing following a mistake at the third (sustained an overreach/lost a shoe), but she has the ability to be a big factor.

Class Advantage

6/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/04 · mark par6/047/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/05 · mark par30/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/03 · mark par24/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/04 · mark par17/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par10/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/06 · mark par10/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength9%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f 104y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 80%6/04Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%30/03Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 91%Pos 1 · SP 8/13 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 8/13 | Actual: 100%17/05Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%10/06
Projected finish3rd of 6
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend
60%2-564/100
3
4
OR 109
10/1
American Land silks

Brocade Racing

American Land

8yo Gelding · 11-8

Malinas - Golan Annie (Golan)

Brendan Powell60%4/14J Tizzard60%
1442P4
5.0
Tongue strap

Fairly useful hurdler, winning 5 times in handicaps, though not always the most straightforward. Making only second chase start (pulled up on first occasion), attracted support following another breathing operation but finished last of 4 over this C&D 11 days ago.

Class Advantage

14/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/05 · mark par14/054/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par18/10 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below18/10 · mark par2/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below2/04 · mark par24/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below24/04 · mark par22/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below22/09 · mark par22/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength39%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f 104y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%14/05Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 57%18/10Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 73%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 75%24/04Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 0%22/09
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend
40%1-637/100
2
5
OR 112
13/2
Emailandy silks

Martin Keighley Racing Partnership 26

Emailandy

8yo Gelding · 11-11

Mount Nelson - Eoz (Sadler's Wells)

S Bowen80%M Keighley80%
P8PP31
3.0Class ↓3
1st Visor +2

Useful handicap hurdler at best but little form since 2023/24, pulled up in 5 of his last 6 races including on his second chase start at Kempton (3m) in March. Off 6 months ahead of first run since leaving Paul Nicholls. Now switches to a visor.

Class Advantage

6/02 · C4 · finish vs mark below6/02 · mark par6/029/03 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/03 · mark par31/03 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/03 · mark par27/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below27/04 · mark par16/11 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below16/11 · mark par26/12 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/12 · mark par26/12projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f 104y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 75%6/02Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%31/03Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%16/11Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 22%26/12
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
20%1-552/100
6
6
OR 94
16/1
Majestic Moment silks

Mr T D H Hughes

Majestic Moment

7yo Gelding · 10-7

Imperial Monarch - Lost It (Luso)

Bryan Carver3/8D Summersby60%
11U26P
7.0

Scored 3 times switched to chasing last season, including twice at this course. Ran well when second over C&D in May, but poor efforts at Worcester the last twice. Needs to bounce back after 3 months off (has had a breathing operation).

Class Advantage

23/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/10 · mark par23/1014/11 · C5 · finish vs mark below14/11 · mark par7/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/04 · mark par24/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/04 · mark par24/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below24/05 · mark par6/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below6/06 · mark par6/06projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength5%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 2m 3f 104y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%23/10Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 40%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%7/04Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 80%24/05Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 38%6/06
Projected finish6th of 6
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
0%4-674/100