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2

Breckenbrough

4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 10 · OR 98

Ascot · BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ex Andrew Balding filly who has developed into a useful sort for this yard, ending 2025 with listed success at Saint-Cloud. Made the frame in listed races at Longchamp on first 2 starts this season and has had excuses since, suffering interference in Group 3 at Longchamp 20 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chester 31/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Gd 12831/0544 @ Carlisle 10/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 79 · 5f182y Goo 135 · beat its mark10/07/2025 · OR 79 parC5 @ Deauville 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 80 · 6f211y GS 128 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 80 par23/08C5OR 80C1 @ Saint-Cloud 03/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 80 · 7f209y GS 122 · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 80 par10 @ ParisLongchamp 23/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 80 · 6f211y GS 123 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 80 par23/0410OR 801 @ ParisLongchamp 14/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 80 · 7f209y Ver 127 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 80 par1 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 99 · 1m113y GS 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 99 par6/061OR 991 @ Deauville 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 99 · 7f209y Sft 124 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 99 parC1 @ ParisLongchamp 13/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 98 · 6f211y GS 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 98 par13/09C1OR 98projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13ParisLongchamp?6th6th+0
2026-07-04Deauville15th5th0
2026-06-06Epsom Downs15th5th+0
2026-05-14ParisLongchamp14th4th0
2026-04-23ParisLongchamp103rd3rd0
2025-10-03Saint-Cloud?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/053/106/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20255th5/696%56%-0.40
10/07/20252nd5/174%90%+0.16
23/08/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
03/10/20251st18/15%100%+0.95
23/04/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06
14/05/20264th15/261%67%+0.06
06/06/20265th12/137%33%-0.04
04/07/20265th10/382%20%-0.62
13/09/20266th12/137%17%-0.20