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3

Dash Of Azure

4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 2 · OR 100

Ascot · BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice in handicaps last season before narrowly denied in this race. Without a win during the current campaign, but runner-up in 2 listed races at Chester and was unsuited by the drop back to 6f at Pontefract last time. No surprise to see a bold show.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Thirsk 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 86 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 86 par6/093OR 861 @ Ascot 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 89 · 7f Sft 126 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 89 parC1 @ ParisLongchamp 19/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 101 · 6f211y GS 123 · beat its mark19/10/2025 · OR 101 par19/10C1OR 1011 @ Lingfield 09/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 101 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 101 par1 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR 98 · 7f213y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 98 par17/061OR 981 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 97 · 7f1y Goo 128 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 97 par1 @ Chester 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 101 · 7f1y Goo 128 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 101 par11/071OR 1011 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 101 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 101 par1 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 101 · 6f Goo 130 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 101 par16/081OR 101projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Pontefract19th9th0
2026-07-29Goodwood110th10th+0
2026-07-11Chester12nd2nd0
2026-06-27Chester12nd2nd0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot112th12th+0
2026-05-09Lingfield17th7th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/099/0511/0716/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 26/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
04/10/20252nd12/137%93%+0.56
19/10/20258th4/179%59%-0.20
09/05/20267th13/266%0%-0.66
17/06/202612th66/10%21%+0.21
27/06/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
11/07/20262nd7/163%88%+0.24
29/07/202610th10/147%25%-0.22
16/08/20269th11/142%11%-0.31