7

Domina Ignis

3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 8 · OR 97

Ascot · BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Impressive debut winner at Southwell last year and shaped well when third in the Fred Darling at Newbury on return. Well held in 1000 Guineas/Jersey Stakes next 2 starts, but took a step back in the right direction when 4 lengths seventh of 19 in Group 3 at Doncaster 20 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 21/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f16y Std 12821/1151 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0411 @ Newmarket 03/05/2026 · Pos 18th of 19 · OR 97 · 1m GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 97 par3/051OR 971 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 97 · 7f GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 97 par20/061OR 971 @ Doncaster 13/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 95 · 7f6y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 95 par13/091OR 95projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Doncaster17th7th+0
2026-06-20Royal Ascot113th13th+0
2026-05-03Newmarket118th17th+1
2026-04-18Newbury13rd3rd+0
2025-11-21Southwell51st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1118/043/0520/0613/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 49/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength67%

Delivery trend +5.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
18/04/20263rd14/126%85%+0.58
03/05/202618th66/10%6%+0.06
20/06/202613th150/10%20%+0.20
13/09/20267th50/10%67%+0.67