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9

Just A Girl

3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 12 · OR 95

Ascot · BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole success came in novice on the turf at Lingfield last summer but has still improved this season, runner-up 3 times including in listed race at Carlisle in June. Soon bounced back from a below-par run when 1½ lengths third in another listed contest at Deauville in August.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ York 21/08/2025 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 84 · 7f Goo 129 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 84 par21/082OR 841 @ Newmarket 01/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 82 · 1m GS 128 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 84 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 84 par5/044OR 843 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 84 · 1m142y Std 119 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 7f Gd 134 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 83 par15/054OR 833 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 6f195y Goo 124 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 82 par1 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 83 · 6f195y GF 128 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 83 par24/061OR 832 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 93 · 7f GF 131 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 93 par1 @ Deauville 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 92 · 7f100y Sft 121 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 92 par8/081OR 92projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Deauville13rd3rd0
2026-07-11Newmarket28th9th−1
2026-06-24Carlisle12nd2nd0
2026-05-30Carlisle32nd5th−2
2026-05-15Newmarket42nd6th−3
2026-04-17Wolverhampton34th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0817/0424/068/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength57%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/202513th14/126%29%+0.03
01/11/20257th40/10%33%+0.33
05/04/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
17/04/20264th6/168%25%-0.43
15/05/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43
30/05/20262nd9/153%88%+0.35
24/06/20262nd11/142%89%+0.47
11/07/20268th16/116%13%-0.03
08/08/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62