IvyArcIvyArc
10

Midnight Tango

3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 11 · OR 102

Ascot · BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed much improved form when runner-up in the Pavilion Stakes here (6f) on return in May. Left poorly placed in the Commonwealth Cup next time, before possibly needing the run after 2 months off in listed race at Newmarket in August. Merits consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 05/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f6y Goo 1285/0651 @ Newmarket 26/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 6f GF 1281 @ Ascot 26/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 93 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 93 par26/071OR 931 @ Newmarket 09/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 95 · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 95 par1 @ Haydock 06/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 96 · 1m37y Gd 125 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 96 par6/091OR 961 @ Newmarket 10/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 96 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 96 par1 @ Ascot 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 96 par1/051OR 961 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 22 · OR 104 · 6f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 103 · 6f Gd 121 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 103 par22/081OR 103projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Newmarket16th6th0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot113th12th+1
2026-05-01Ascot12nd2nd+0
2025-10-10Newmarket110th10th+0
2025-09-06Haydock16th6th0
2025-08-09Newmarket14th4th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/069/081/0522/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength97%

Delivery trend +6.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/06/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
26/06/20252nd5/174%86%+0.12
26/07/20254th5/174%67%-0.07
09/08/20254th7/491%25%-0.66
06/09/20256th12/137%17%-0.20
10/10/202510th18/15%0%-0.05
01/05/20262nd66/10%86%+0.86
19/06/202613th50/10%43%+0.43
22/08/20266th20/10%17%+0.17