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Mostar Dreams

5yo Mare · 9-2 · Draw 5 · OR 95

Ascot · BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first success for this yard in 1m handicap at Newcastle in January. Good efforts when making the frame in a pair of listed races at Pontefract in July but below form the last twice, running poorly back in handicap company at Thirsk (6f) on latest outing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 83 · 7f6y Hvy 140 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 83 par8/114OR 834 @ Chelmsford City 26/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 82 · 7f Std 137 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Newcastle 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 1m5y Std 137 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 82 par9/014OR 824 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 84 · 1m5y Std 134 · below its mark06/02/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 6f195y GF 142 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 84 par24/064OR 841 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 85 · 1m6y Goo 128 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 85 par1 @ Pontefract 26/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 88 · 1m6y Goo 128 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 88 par26/071OR 881 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 98 · 7f212y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 98 par3 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 97 · 6f Goo 142 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 97 par5/093OR 97projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk39th12th−2
2026-08-08Haydock19th9th0
2026-07-26Pontefract13rd3rd0
2026-07-07Pontefract14th4th0
2026-06-24Carlisle42nd6th−3
2026-02-06Newcastle49th13th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/116/0226/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength35%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/202519th20/10%10%+0.10
26/11/20253rd3/184%67%-0.18
09/01/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
06/02/20269th9/153%27%-0.25
24/06/20262nd15/261%80%+0.19
07/07/20264th33/10%73%+0.73
26/07/20263rd20/10%60%+0.60
08/08/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
05/09/20269th28/10%0%0.00