11
Secret History
3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 83
Ascot · BetMGM British EBF October Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 3 | 3rd | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 4 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Wetherby | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-01-29 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 7-11 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength26%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 07/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.16 |
| 20/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 72% | +0.25 |