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Air Force One

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 1 · OR 102

Ascot · BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has a most admirable record this season, scoring at the Ebor Meeting in August and producing another career best resuming winning ways in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster (5.6f, good) 3 weeks ago. Well worth a shot at this level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 89 · 5f Std 129 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 89 par6/023OR 893 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 88 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 21 · OR 90 · 5f Gd 125 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 90 par14/052OR 902 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 90 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 90 · 5f Sta 130 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 90 par26/062OR 902 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 21 · OR 90 · 6f Goo 128 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 91 · 5f89y Goo 125 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 91 par19/082OR 912 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 91 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 21 · OR 98 · 5f143y Gd 133 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 98 par12/092OR 98projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Doncaster21st2nd−1
2026-08-22York28th9th−1
2026-08-19York21st2nd−1
2026-07-25York23rd4th−1
2026-06-26Newcastle23rd4th−1
2026-05-23York25th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0223/0519/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength77%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20265th11/142%69%+0.27
15/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
14/05/202612th5/174%45%-0.29
23/05/20265th10/147%73%+0.26
26/06/20263rd7/163%85%+0.21
25/07/20263rd9/153%90%+0.37
19/08/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
22/08/20268th4/179%63%-0.16
12/09/20261st11/271%100%+0.29