3
Baker Blue
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 99
Ascot · BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-08-19 | York | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Pontefract | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 6th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 22th | 23th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength64%
Delivery trend +8.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 17/02/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 16/03/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 19/06/2026 | 22nd | 80/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 17/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |