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10

First Instinct

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 104

Ascot · BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#9

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had cut little ice when faced with quite stiff tasks over 5f on her first 2 starts this season and bounced back to something like her best when second of 13 in the Summer Stakes at York (6f) in July. Underperformed at Naas next time but wasn't disgraced in 5f Group 3 at Newbury latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ York 11/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 104 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2025 · OR 104 par11/071OR 1041 @ Beverley 30/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 102 · 5f Goo 126 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 102 par1 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 100 · 5f34y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 100 par20/091OR 100C0 @ ParisLongchamp 05/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 107 · 4f213y Ver 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 107 par1 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 107 · 5f GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 107 par2/051OR 1071 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 22nd of 26 · OR 106 · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 105 · 6f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 105 par10/071OR 1051 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 105 · 5f205y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 105 par1 @ Newbury 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 105 · 5f34y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 105 par19/091OR 105projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newbury15th5th+0
2026-08-23Naas15th5th+0
2026-07-10York12nd2nd+0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot122th21th+1
2026-05-02Newmarket19th9th+0
2025-10-05ParisLongchamp?13th12th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/075/1010/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength65%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20255th4/179%60%-0.19
30/08/20254th7/163%63%-0.01
20/09/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
05/10/202513th18/15%25%+0.20
02/05/20269th25/10%38%+0.38
16/06/202622nd66/10%16%+0.16
10/07/20262nd11/142%92%+0.50
23/08/20265th15/890%43%-0.47
19/09/20265th6/168%60%-0.08