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11

Heavenly Heather

5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 102

Ascot · BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Seemed to excel herself when sixth of 26 in Group 1 King Charles III at the Royal Meeting (5f) in June. Showed that to be no fluke when mid-field in the Nunthorpe at York 2 starts later and shaped as if still in good form when 7 lengths ninth of 14 to Fluorescence in Ayr listed race since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newcastle 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 84 · 6f Std 123 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 84 par16/012OR 843 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 90 · 5f Std 130 · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 94 · 6f Std 129 · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 94 par19/032OR 942 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 93 · 5f1y Sft 126 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 21 · OR 92 · 5f Gd 127 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 92 par14/052OR 921 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 26 · OR 92 · 5f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 92 par1 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 104 · 5f Goo 122 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 104 par11/071OR 1041 @ York 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR 104 · 5f GS 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 104 par1 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 103 · 5f110y Sft 128 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 103 par18/091OR 103projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr19th9th0
2026-08-21York110th9th+1
2026-07-11York112th12th0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot16th5th+1
2026-05-14York22nd3rd−1
2026-04-04Musselburgh24th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/014/0411/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength23%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/01/20265th11/142%69%+0.27
06/02/20262nd6/168%92%+0.24
19/03/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
04/04/20264th18/15%77%+0.72
14/05/20262nd14/126%95%+0.69
16/06/20266th40/10%80%+0.80
11/07/202612th13/266%8%-0.57
21/08/202610th80/10%47%+0.47
18/09/20269th7/163%38%-0.25