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4

King Of Light

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 9 · OR 97

Ascot · BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved at least as good as ever when winning 5f Haydock handicap for second year running last week, albeit having a positional advantage towards the stand rail. Has more on his plate back up in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 20 · OR 91 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 91 par6/062OR 912 @ Windsor 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 91 · 6f12y GF 133 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ Ascot 11/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 99 · 5f GF 134 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 99 par11/072OR 992 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 99 · 5f GF 137 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 99 par2 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 27 · OR 91 · 6f GF 127 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 91 par1/082OR 912 @ Windsor 10/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 97 · 6f12y GF 136 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 97 par2 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 97 · 6f Goo 131 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 97 par22/082OR 972 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 95 · 5f143y Gd 130 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Haydock 26/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 94 · 5f Hvy 136 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 94 par26/092OR 94projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Haydock21st2nd−1
2026-09-12Doncaster25th6th−1
2026-08-22York214th15th−1
2026-08-10Windsor26th7th−1
2026-08-01Goodwood28th9th−1
2026-07-25Ascot27th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0625/0722/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength30%

Delivery trend +2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/06/20265th11/271%79%+0.08
29/06/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
11/07/202615th9/153%0%-0.53
25/07/20267th12/137%50%+0.13
01/08/20268th33/10%73%+0.73
10/08/20266th7/282%67%-0.15
22/08/202614th16/116%32%+0.16
12/09/20265th11/142%80%+0.38
26/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26