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7

Shagraan

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 2 · OR 106

Ascot · BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

74%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual listed winner last season for Michael Appleby, including in this corresponding event. Went backwards from a sound start for current yard but bounced right back to his best in first-time cheekpieces when close third in Group 3 at Newbury latest. Should go well again if headgear has same effect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.5
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newmarket 22/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 100 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 100 par22/081OR 1001 @ Beverley 30/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 99 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 99 par1 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 108 · 5f34y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 108 par20/091OR 1081 @ Ascot 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 108 · 5f Sft 132 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 108 par1 @ Newmarket 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 108 · 5f GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 108 par2/051OR 1081 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 108 · 5f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 108 par1 @ Royal Ascot 16/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 26 · OR 107 · 5f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 107 par16/061OR 1071 @ Sandown 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 106 · 5f10y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Newbury 19/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 104 · 5f34y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 104 par19/091OR 104projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Newbury12nd2nd+0
2026-07-04Sandown17th7th+0
2026-06-16Royal Ascot117th16th+1
2026-05-23Haydock111th11th+0
2026-05-02Newmarket13rd3rd+0
2025-10-04Ascot11st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/084/1016/0619/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength74%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20254th10/147%63%+0.15
30/08/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
20/09/20252nd11/486%90%+0.04
04/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
02/05/20263rd13/266%85%+0.19
23/05/202611th5/174%9%-0.65
16/06/202617th66/10%36%+0.36
04/07/20267th4/179%25%-0.54
19/09/20262nd11/142%90%+0.48