8
Tuco Salamanca
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 3 · OR 110
Ascot · BetMGM Rous Stakes (Listed) · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Ayr | 2 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 2 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Kempton | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 82% | +0.13 |
| 03/10/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 76% | +0.03 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 96% | +0.80 |