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Al Aasy

9yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 6 · OR 112

Ascot · BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 3f 211y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong traveller who was given plenty to do when runner-up in this corresponding event 2 years ago. Isn't always the heartiest in a battle, but he was delivered perfectly to land a career-best success in Grade 2 Grand Prix de Deauville latest. No easy task giving 5 lb to the field, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Newbury 17/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 115 · 1m4f GF 131 · beat its mark17/05/2025 · OR 115 par17/051OR 1151 @ Royal Ascot 21/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 115 · 1m3f211y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/06/2025 · OR 115 par1 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 114 · 1m3f218y Goo 132 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 114 par2/081OR 1141 @ Leopardstown 13/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 115 · 1m4f Goo 138 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 115 par1 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 115 · 1m4f Sft 135 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 115 par25/101OR 1151 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 115 · 1m4f Goo 128 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 115 par1 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 114 · 1m4f23y Goo 128 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 114 par4/071OR 1141 @ Goodwood 01/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 114 · 1m3f218y GF 129 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 114 par1 @ Deauville 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 112 · 1m4f94y Hvy 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 112 par30/081OR 112projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Deauville11st1st+0
2026-08-01Goodwood13rd3rd0
2026-07-04Beverley11st1st−0
2026-04-18Newbury12nd2nd0
2025-10-25Newbury19th9th0
2025-09-13Leopardstown15th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0513/094/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▲ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
21/06/20257th12/137%45%+0.09
02/08/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
13/09/20255th5/493%50%-0.43
25/10/20259th3/184%0%-0.84
18/04/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
04/07/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
01/08/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
30/08/20261st5/287%100%+0.13