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2

By The Book

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 4 · OR 108

Ascot · BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 3f 211y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Smart 5-y-o who is lightly raced for his age. Finished behind stablemate Royal Power in the Sheema Classic in March. Back to his best with consecutive runner-up finishes in listed company this summer, doing all he could behind a game one at Chester (14.5f) latest. Needs even more in a better race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 14/06/2023 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f212y GF 13314/0645 @ Chelmsford City 05/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m2f Sta 1371 @ Newmarket 26/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 95 · 1m4f GF 133 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 95 par26/091OR 95C0 @ Meydan 19/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m4f Yie 136C1 @ Meydan 30/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 101 · 1m2f Gd 126 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 101 par30/01C1OR 101C1 @ Meydan 20/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 101 · 1m6f11y Gd 130 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 101 parC0 @ Meydan 28/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 110 · 1m4f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 110 par28/03C?OR 1101 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 110 · 1m4f23y Goo 128 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 110 par1 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 109 · 1m6f87y Goo 134 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 109 par22/081OR 109projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Chester12nd2nd−0
2026-07-04Beverley12nd2nd−0
2026-03-28Meydan?6th6th+0
2026-02-20Meydan?3rd3rd0
2026-01-30Meydan?3rd3rd0
2025-12-19Meydan?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0619/1228/0322/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength67%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20231st5/493%100%+0.07
05/12/20241st5/696%100%+0.04
26/09/20253rd5/493%67%-0.27
19/12/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
30/01/20263rd4/696%67%-0.30
20/02/20263rd15/890%71%-0.19
28/03/20266th66/10%0%0.00
04/07/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
22/08/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04