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6

Tenability

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 5 · OR 114

Ascot · BetMGM Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) · 1m 3f 211y

#1

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

66%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Most progressive when completing a 4-timer (3 C&D handicaps) last September. Won twice at listed level since chasing home Al Aasy in the John Porter on return, setting a sound pace/holding on gamely for a much-improved success at Windsor last time. Set to enhance his excellent course record.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Windsor 28/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m2f GF 13028/0644 @ Ascot 26/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 81 · 1m3f211y Goo 135 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 81 par3 @ Ascot 09/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 88 · 1m3f211y Goo 139 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 88 par9/083OR 882 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 1m3f211y Sft 124 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 92 par1 @ Ascot 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 100 · 1m3f211y Sft 126 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 100 par4/101OR 1001 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 103 · 1m4f Goo 128 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 103 par1 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 109 · 1m3f218y Sft 129 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 109 par7/061OR 1091 @ Deauville 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 109 · 1m4f94y Sft 131 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 109 par1 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 110 · 1m3f99y Sft 136 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 110 par29/081OR 110projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Windsor11st1st−0
2026-08-08Deauville13rd3rd0
2026-06-07Goodwood11st1st−0
2026-04-18Newbury13rd3rd0
2025-10-04Ascot12nd2nd0
2025-09-06Ascot21st3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/066/097/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength84%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/06/20251st4/596%100%+0.04
26/07/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
09/08/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
06/09/20251st85/4089%100%+0.11
04/10/20252nd13/266%75%+0.09
18/04/20263rd6/168%60%-0.08
07/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
08/08/20263rd6/492%60%-0.32
29/08/20261st2/189%100%+0.11