IvyArcIvyArc
8

Division

3yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 2 · OR 117

Ascot · John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed hat-trick in listed company at York last October. Yet to win this season but has raised his game considerably, shaping well in going down narrowly in Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville (6.5f, good to firm) on most recent outing. Big player back down in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Haydock 04/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 6f Goo 1284/0934 @ Yarmouth 16/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f3y GS 1371 @ York 11/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 93 · 6f Gd 129 · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 93 par11/101OR 932 @ Ascot 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 103 · 6f Gd 133 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 103 par1 @ Ascot 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 103 · 6f Goo 129 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 103 par1/051OR 1031 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 106 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 106 par1 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 22 · OR 109 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 109 par19/061OR 1091 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 113 · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 113 parC0 @ Deauville 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 113 · 6f101y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 113 par9/08C?OR 113projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Deauville?2nd2nd+0
2026-07-11Newmarket15th5th+0
2026-06-19Royal Ascot13rd3rd+0
2026-05-23Haydock12nd2nd+0
2026-05-01Ascot13rd3rd0
2025-10-18Ascot25th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0918/1019/069/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 87/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20251st4/696%100%+0.04
16/09/20251st2/799%100%+0.02
11/10/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
18/10/20255th10/382%60%-0.22
01/05/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
23/05/20262nd15/890%83%-0.07
19/06/20263rd8/158%90%+0.33
11/07/20265th11/142%60%+0.18
09/08/20262nd4/179%90%+0.11